top of page

Do you use chance of regional success to rank prospects?













Images from Hronsky and Groves, 2008.

Minerals exploration is a high-risk venture with a low chance of success, especially since most effort is focused on individual prospects at only kilometre scale. Knowledge about how the prospect compares with genetically related deposits, in terms of resource size and commercial viability, is often not sought. The result is often descriptive, rather than comparative.

Trying to predict the future outcome of an exploration program, or trying to forward-model what Nature did from millions of years ago to today - and kilometers below surface - requires a chance of success-based forecasting approach to mineral deposits and metallogenic provinces.

Image from Banks (2019), modified from Peel and White (2015)

Desktop asset evaluations and exploration chance of success evaluations can add more value and kudos than the drill bit, especially during periods of low commodity price, cost reduction, efficiency drives or COVID-19 restrictions.

Minerals exploration can benefit a different approach, like the one the petroleum industry adopted when Play-Based Exploration techniques became widely accepted and used. Petroleum explorers invest effort to predict, understand and map the prospect portfolio at regional scales before selecting countries and license blocks to enter: geological and economic uncertainties, risks and chances of success. Why? To enable informed decision-making and Risk Management across a portfolio.


It is a cost-effective approach: 1 regional-scale desktop-evaluation of many opportinities across 3 countries = a fraction of the cost of 1 misplaced drilling programme.

Play-Based Exploration enabled exploration companies to predict where petroleum system components overlap geographically: revealing the most fertile regions for petroleum discovery. A merge of predictive exploration targeting and Play-Based Exploration techniques could be the paradigm shift required for mineral exploration. Route To Reserves can bring this to your organisation.

Rewards for regional scale exploration assessments and targeting.


• Strong foundation for confident greenfield and brownfield exploration.

• Uncertainties, risks and probability of success mapped: smarter Risk Management and where to direct your budgets.

• Metrics for geoscientists, economists and strategists to use together.

• Objective, scaled results to build an exploration targeting strategy.

• Increased chance of success and decision quality.

• Competitive advantage for evaluating and risking a region’s licenses.


All cheaper than 1 misplaced drilling campaign

Do you use chance of regional success to rank prospects?

dice game exploration risk.png
bottom of page